Predicting and sometimes getting lucky

When around $470 this was touted to hit $600 (even $2000). I predicted a fall and now a few weeks later has dropped to around $350. Prediction is easy right? Is it hell. Like most of my successful plays on the markets there's a small degree of analysis of fundamentals (which tends to work in the long run) but an enormous amount of luck. The point of this post is not to blow my own trumpet (though it feels good as I deliberate on just when to close my short position) I really wanted to point out this excellent podcast from the economics essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb's entitled "The Scandal of Prediction".

tags: google, google-is-overvalued, googlemania, investment, prediction, podcast, probability, random, statistics, markets, stock-market, maths, economics, sociology